Keeping Current
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 215,000 new jobs in March. The average monthly gain last year was 228,700 positions. 1
- The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% in March from February’s 4.9%. A year ago, the unemployment rate stood at 5.5%.1
- The civilian labor force grew 1.5% in the year ending in March 2016, the fastest year-ago pace since early 2007. The gain represents an additional 2.4 million adults who are either employed or are actively looking for work. Over the past three months, the labor force has expanded at an annualized 3.7% rate.1
- The increase in the labor force pushed the civilian participation rate — the ratio of the labor force to the adult population, subtracting those on active military duty — to 63.0% in March, its highest level in two years.1
- The participation rate remains below the 1980-2009 average of 65.9%. If today’s economy were operating at this average participation rate, then today’s labor force would be larger by 7.3 million workers.1
- The economy grew at a 1.4% annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2015, up from February’s 1.0% estimate. Still, economic growth decelerated from the 2.0% growth posted in the third quarter. The economy has grown at a 2.1% average annual rate since the current recovery began in mid-2009.2
- Consumption spending rose at a 2.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2015, down from the 3.0% pace set in the third quarter. Although it exceeded the 2.2% average annual growth set during this recovery, the fourth quarter saw the slowest growth since mid-2014.2
- Corporate profits from current production were down 11.5% in the final quarter of 2015 relative to the final quarter of 2014. That’s the largest year-over-year decline since late 2008. The average annual growth rate since the onset of the recovery is 5.9%.2
- The average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in Freddie Mac’s survey was 3.59% during the week ending April 7, a decline of 12 basis points from the previous week. That’s the largest one-week decline in the last 15 months and the lowest rate since May 2013. The March average was 3.69%. All rates quoted have fees and points averaging 0.5% to 0.7% of the loan amount.3
Here's additional information from the Wells Fargo Economics Group:
Factory Orders Revisions Are Killing Outlook for Q1 Spending (April 4)
Jobs: Cyclical Employment, Structural Unemployment (April 1)
Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in February (April 1)
Mixed Report for Personal Income & Spending (March 28)
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary (April 1)
Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary (March 25)
Visit the Wells Fargo Economics Group for more economic commentary and analysis.
1. “The Employment Situation – March 2016,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1, 2016. All employment data are seasonally adjusted.
www.bls.gov/news.release/
2. “National Income and Product Accounts – Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 25, 2016. Corporate profits are before tax and include adjustments for changes in the value of inventories and capital depreciation.
www.bea.gov/newsreleases/
3. Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, April 7, 2016.
www.freddiemac.com/pmms/.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Economic Data system (FRED) was used to collect historical data on nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, and the CPI.
Keeping Current is produced by the Sales & Service Systems Office of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.
Information is accurate as of date of printing and is subject to change without notice.
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